MARKET UPDATE | 9.20.23
Fed Decision, Fed Statement and Powell Press Conference
Read more: MARKET UPDATE | 9.20.23It would be a huge surprise if the Fed does anything other than hold tight today.
The big market mover will be from any changes to the Fed Statement and the details from the press conference.
We have set cycle highs in the 8th going into 9th inning of the cycle. What does this mean? I am sure there will be differing opinions, but I believe it just means that things can drop abruptly. The higher for longer narrative is likely to play out to be true. That just means no more hikes. But there is plenty of economic data showing cracks.
I saved a quote I saw from Janet Yellen the other day on the TV next to me in the office on CNBC Squawk Box. I put it on my long to do list way towards bottom so that when I see it in a year, I will remember how ridiculous some of these people are.
Here it is – Sept 18, 2023 – Janet Yellen – “I don’t see any signs the economy is in risk of a downturn” CNBC 11 am
Overnight the 10 yr jumped to 4.37, which is well above the cycle highs.
It is my belief that if there is any acknowledgement of the actual problems, or, a clear statement around being at the end of hikes, we will see a big movement down after the statement.
I don’t think they will acknowledge that they are at the end, but I think there is a good chance they will acknowledge the issues. Therefore, I believe that we will come materially off the 4.36 – 4.37 highs after today.
We will see what the end of the day brings…
Josh Erskine
Chief Executive Officer
CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans
Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Global Investments LLC