Market Update: Powell Press Conference
Hello All,
Well, the 2nd half of this week has gotten interesting. We are now starting to see some large investment and hedge managers taking bets in favor of a treasury rally. Some are signaling we hit peek and we could see a rally from here.
Although I am and have been 100% in the camp that the economy is not as strong as being communicated by the Feds and others, as well as the job reports are not accurate, I am hesitant at this point to say this is the begin to a steady move down. There is still conflicting data to this narrative with Factory Orders coming in strong today well over expectations. This is after the ISM Manufacturing came out materially lower yesterday. We are not going to see a one way move and I won’t have the confidence to call that move to be sustainable until data better aligns. There also still seems to be a very resilient equity market and I have significant fear of a bounce in inflation if the economy is not slowed substantially more prior to ending the narrative around future rate hikes. I have said from months that I think they are done hiking, however, I also think they will need to keep them here for a while until this slowdown becomes more apparent and the job market begins to show much larger cracks. We need jobless claims to get over 240k-250k to feel good about the recovery of inflation in my opinion.
It is nice to see the 10 yr down in the 4.60 – 4.65 range, but that range will not impact our business. we have a long way to go.
Tomorrow could be a game changer if the employment numbers show major weakness. You will see a rally that could put us well under 4.5 if this occurs because there is so much job data coming out. We will have to wait and see.
I still have substantial concerns over government debt costs and its implications on the market and its ability to overshadow all of this data if investors or rating agencies become more concerned.
Josh Erskine
Chief Executive Officer
CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans
Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Global Investments LLC