{"id":76,"date":"2023-09-14T13:53:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T19:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/?p=76"},"modified":"2023-09-18T12:05:43","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T18:05:43","slug":"market-update-9-14-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/?p=76","title":{"rendered":"MARKET UPDATE | 9.14.23"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Again, PPI of limited concern as the increase was primarily gasoline &#8211; market holding after strong jobless claims report, negative PPI report and negative Retail Sales (all missed high \/ better than expected which is neg for rates)<\/p>\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/?p=76\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: MARKET UPDATE | 9.14.23<\/span><\/a>\n\n\n<p><br>Below is a good summary from one of our broker dealers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>The Retail numbers we mentioned on the webinar yesterday could miss based on seeing Gas, Apparel and New Cars up.&nbsp; This did in fact happen, with again Gasoline being the largest contributor.&nbsp; I am not sure why the expectations were so low, which is what we discussed that we could see a large miss.&nbsp; That did in fact happen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No break yet in jobless claims.&nbsp; Another slight miss.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the market has held up yet again as this easily could have yet again pushed yields.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>I still stand by that the market is starting to see the slowdown and we will begin to see that in the next set of reports, which is why I believe we are holding even with not god data for rates typically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, the European Central Bank did another 25 BPS which could also have upside pressure. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some details below on all of this.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mail.google.com\/mail\/u\/0?ui=2&amp;ik=5d4dccb906&amp;attid=0.1&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1777023341720493220&amp;th=18a9415070d3dca4&amp;view=fimg&amp;fur=ip&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ-xi5wM8uLPz173D7rmNOtI5IrMH17-5ZqtbP02hPK9VA-SK5ikuuSQvbYKnhNtY2vWqmdAzPR9vw4nsH982UK4hRd-8DWjNjo5uHqML1L3rEywKYODimONOb8&amp;disp=emb\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PPI:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline PPI up +0.7% mom (vs 0.4% expected) with ex Food and Energy +0.2% (vs +0.2% expected)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As with CPI yesterday, energy price increases were the largest contributor to reported inflation \u2013with gasoline (and jet fuel) price increases having an outsized impact (gasoline with a 20% increase)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Retail Sales:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline retail sales up +0.6% mom (vs 0.1% expected)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ex auto and Gas +0.2% (-0.1% expected)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Attention now focused on holiday sales with consumers under increasing pressure (inflation, depleted savings, limited ability to tap home refinancing for funding) &nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ECB\u2014note how in sync Europe and ECB are with the US and the Fed:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ECB raises deposit rate 25bp to 4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ECB President Christine Lagarde would not rule out further rate increases:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cWith today\u2019s decision, we have made sufficient contributions, under the current assessment, to returning inflation to target in a timely manner\u2026The focus is probably going to move a bit more to the duration, but it is not to say \u2014 because we can\u2019t say \u2014 that now that we are at peak.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em>(Bloomberg)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mail.google.com\/mail\/u\/0?ui=2&amp;ik=5d4dccb906&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1777023341720493220&amp;th=18a9415070d3dca4&amp;view=fimg&amp;fur=ip&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ9jZlaN7m5R2F1Uys53vNmgYjKw6Zu0HaJc84foFUBJE1JWqdH3G9tnQJmAlpFrEQBiB0sMvXSZoHZoAmm4w5Le-6ASGNuQbMsAuNxr4DCDD7KjZsplRgwTCvQ&amp;disp=emb\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Josh Erskine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chief Executive Officer<br><br>CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans<br>Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC<br>Yellowstone Global Investments LLC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bluebirdhl.com\/privacy\" target=\"_blank\">Privacy<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bluebirdhl.com\/licensing\" target=\"_blank\">Licensing<\/a><br><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">NMLS Consumer Access<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a9 2023 Bluebird Home Loans<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bluebird Home Loans is an Equal Housing Lender NMLS # 2383522. Corporate Address: 616 S. Americana Blvd, Boise, ID 83702. Corporate Phone (877) 482-1874. By refinancing your existing loan, your total finance charges may be higher over the life of the loan. (Reference: 10 VAC 5-160-60 (F))<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All products are not available in all states. All options are not available on all programs. All programs are subject to borrower and property qualifications. Rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Again, PPI of limited concern as the increase was primarily gasoline &#8211; market holding after strong jobless claims report, negative PPI report and negative Retail Sales (all missed high \/ better than expected which is neg for rates) Below is a good summary from one of our broker dealers.&nbsp; The Retail numbers we mentioned on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=76"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76\/revisions\/93"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=76"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=76"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=76"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}