{"id":135,"date":"2023-12-05T13:04:57","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T20:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/?p=135"},"modified":"2023-12-05T13:04:57","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T20:04:57","slug":"market-update-strong-market-reaction-to-large-jolts-miss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/?p=135","title":{"rendered":"Market Update: Strong market reaction to large JOLTS miss"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hello All,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first bit of data from an action-packed employment numbers week was positive for rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

We finally saw a very material LEAD indicator on the loosening of the job market with the JOLTS report coming in way under expectations of 9.4 M at 8.7 M.  In addition, the prior report was adjusted down as well.  The JOLTS report as a reminder is a count of JOB OPENINGS.  Many say there is a large amount of double counting in this report, therefore, there is far less openings than this.  In addition, this morning WF announced an expected $1 B cost associated with severances from Q4 layoffs.  That may not all be market driven, but when you see large headlines like this the same day as a material drop in job openings, it is positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 10 yr had been in the 4.25-4.27 range after the consolidation yesterday, but now we received some breakout news that comfortably pushed the 10 yr through 4.20 in advance of the ADP report tomorrow.  If we see a miss tomorrow, this rally could continue into Thursday.  However, if we don\u2019t, again, you likely will see some slight retraction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


Thursday is Jobless Claims.  A number over 230k I think will be a big win and carry the momentum.  Any surprises with a number above 240k would be a big rally in my eyes.  I think it would be enough to challenge the 4.00 threshold and into 3\u2019s.  If tomorrow\u2019s data comes out below expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday is the big day with Nonfarm payrolls, Unemployment rate and Avg. Earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


We have seen the ADP report and the BLS (better know as the \u201cBS\u201d) Nonfarm payroll report not align even though they are supposed to be measuring the same thing.  So, we will have to wait and see.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When unemployment numbers come out, if the market is off and the rate rises into the 4\u2019s that would create some media headlines that will be positive for rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avg. earnings will be watched as the cooling of wages is big for the inflation narrative.  It would be big to see a .2% there as opposed to .3%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, this week could challenge the 4.00 yields on the 10 yr.  There is still limited liquidity in securities, so points are still prevalent, but buy downs are getting much cheaper. 

It feels like the tides have fully shifted and next is the talk when the Fed\u2019s will be cut.  I have been saying for a while, I don\u2019t think they will make it through Q1 2024 without a cut.  The market started to shift its tone today after the JOLTS report and I am now starting to see some charts on CNBC that has people pricing cuts now into Q1, so I am no longer alone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calendar for the week is below\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Josh Erskine<\/strong>  Chief Executive Officer

CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans
Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Global Investments LLC<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hello All, The first bit of data from an action-packed employment numbers week was positive for rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=135"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":138,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions\/138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluebirdhl.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}