MARKET UPDATE | 9.7.23 – Blue Bird Home Loans Blog

Jobless Claims came in LOW (still a resilient job market in general)

Not much more to report other than we had lower than expected jobless claims at 216k vs 235k. In addition, ongoing claims also came down.

10 yr us sitting just under 4.30 as it was yesterday and will likely try and make another run through 4.30 again today. So far, a lot of resistance.

No more meaningful data will come out before next weeks CPI release on Wednesday.

The market expects things to in general sit in this range ahead of the report (4.25 – 4.33).

There are people speculating this could be a high inflation reading. It is replacing a .2%, so we really need to see the .15 – .17 range as we have been seeing to keep the positive narrative around inflation going.

I would suspect that if we get a HIGH inflation reading, with the current job data the Feds will insert one more hike. I think at that point we will be done. However, I have not seen any data yet that will suggest a very high reading as some are saying (north of .4%). Tomorrow and Monday we will likely get some data around dissecting of reports that compile the CPI data to get some insight.

With some of the Feds changing their hawkish tone, I think they too are seeing material cracks. But we have all been waiting for the job market to soften and so far, it has been very resilient based on the data. Although I do think there is some material issues with how some of the data is presented, and do not think we are at a 3.8% true unemployment level based on calculations (I think materially higher), we cannot look past that the job market has been resilient. It can change quick and likely will.

In addition, when the impact of consumers moving through savings is felt in the market, things will change. I think the next two months the pattern will begin to show cracks.

Josh Erskine

Chief Executive Officer

CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans
Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Global Investments LLC

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