MARKET UPDATE
No clue how we get to where we are today, but we are here
This morning Goldman Sachs lower the chance of a recession in the US to 15%. That likely is what has caused the “market optimism.” In addition, on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning there was a segment on travel surveys coming in that 2024 is going to be higher than 2023.
I think there is A LOT of optimism that is very misguided right now at this stage in the cycle. This morning’s Factory Orders release went from the prior of +2.3% and expected -2.0% to -2.1%. This was the first reversal in four months. The markets are in large part dismissing.
Bottom line is the market appears to simply need to at this point see carnage in jobs. Until then the volatility will continue. The momentum has clearly shifted again on basically NO DATA that supports this and we are back at a 4.24 10 yr and much higher rates than Thursday.
Although the market is now pricing in a much lower chance the Feds will raise rates here at next meeting, we are full circle back to where we were after a strong week of data to support lowering of rates.
There is limited data this week as well. As a result, I am not optimistic for any material change unless a large jump in Jobless Claims on Thursday.
ISM Services is a market mover, so I suppose we could see some progress with a material drop there.
I go back to the basics; people are almost out of savings and loaded with debt and that NEVER ends well.
Another example of sell loans, lock loans and CLOSE FAST.
Josh Erskine
Chief Executive Officer
CalCon Mutual Mortgage LLC dba OneTrust Home Loans
Yellowstone RE Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Global Investments LLC